[FULL] Engineering Probability And Statistics D.k Murugesan

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3 AQUILA RIVER STREAM THUNDERSTORM COVITY PROBABILITY MONTHLY DATA FOR 2005-2016. N.B. This document is part of the thesis of Mr. Vishwaraj, submitted to the University of Technology Sydney, School of Engineering, for the award of the degree of Master of Engineering (Mechanical Engineering), 2013. A total of 53,300 lightning strikes, including 5,300 direct strikes were recorded during 2005-2016 in the Sydney basin. Of these, only 21,400 strikes (38.2%) occurred within the urban Sydney region. 3 Introduction Thunderstorms are the most common and dangerous type of severe weather events, with the bulk of the frequency occurring in the temperate and tropical areas. The typical thunderstorm is classified into four different categories depending on their behavior: (1) a non-severe low level cloud to ground lightning stroke (NC), (2) a short lived severe cloud to ground lightning stroke (CS), (3) a long-lived severe cloud to ground lightning stroke (CC), and (4) a flash flood. Severe cloud to ground lightning (CC and CS) together account for about 97% of all lightning strokes. In the Sydney area, CC and CS account for about 87% of the lightning strokes. One of the important aspects of the lightning strokes is the density of lightning strokes. Of the 4 categories, the CC and CS strokes are of interest, because it is through them that the largest number of severe storms form. The probability of a CC and CS storm is called the probability of convergence (Pc) and the probability of a CC and CS storm happening in a given hour is called the probability of convergence hourly (Pch). The probability of the annual CC and CS events is called the convergence probability yearly (PcY). Given the importance of the CC and CS events, there has been a number of research projects that looked at the probability of the CC and CS events, and the thunderstorm development in Australia and across the world. Although these research projects have been very useful in determining the magnitude of the CC and CS events, there is only a very small number of studies that have looked at the probability of the CC and CS events. In this thesis, a joint probability model, which is a combination of the left truncated and truncated normal distributions is used to model the density of CC and CS (CC and CS d(k)). The study is divided into four sections. The first section looks at the methodology

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